Evaluating the impact of future climate scenarios on HVAC system performance

Summary: The energy performance of buildings is profoundly influenced by the thermal characteristics of the building envelope and the design choices of heating, ventilating, and air conditioning (HVAC) systems. In the context of climate change, marked by rising temperatures, heatwaves, and extreme weather events, the role of air conditioning systems has become increasingly critical worldwide. These systems are essential for climate adaptation, accounting for over 40% of total building energy consumption. Consequently, it is imperative to evaluate and analyze HVAC design alternatives considering future climate scenarios.

This research aims to investigate the impact of future climate scenarios on the performance of HVAC systems and underscore the urgency of addressing this issue. It evaluates various performance parameters, revealing that projected temperature increases will significantly strain air conditioning systems, leading to potential disturbances, additional costs, and interruptions due to system overloads. The findings emphasize the necessity for proactive measures and adaptive strategies to mitigate the adverse effects of climate change on building HVAC systems. By highlighting the critical influence of future temperature rises on air conditioning performance, this study calls for immediate action to enhance the resilience of building systems. Developing and implementing adaptive measures is essential to ensure sustainable and efficient energy use in the face of a changing climate. Policymakers, designers, and engineers must collaborate to develop standards and guidelines that promote climate-resilient HVAC systems. Through these efforts, buildings can better withstand the impacts of climate change, ensuring occupant comfort and safety while minimizing environmental impacts.

Keywords: HVAC Systems, Climate Change, Building Energy Performance, Adaptation Strategies

1. Introduction

Climate has naturally changed over various timescales throughout history. However, particularly since the Industrial Revolution, human activities have increasingly influenced this change alongside natural processes [1]. During this period, significant amounts of greenhouse gases have been released into the atmosphere, primarily due to the use of fossil fuels for heating, cooling buildings, and powering other sources. The main anthropogenic greenhouse gases include carbon dioxide (CO₂), methane (CH₄), nitrous oxide (N₂O), ozone (O₃), and fluorinated gases. The accumulation of these gases has intensified the natural greenhouse effect, contributing to a rise in the Earth's surface temperature, exacerbated by urbanization. In its Fifth Assessment Report, the IPCC classified future climate scenarios by their severity. RCP 2.6 represents a mitigation scenario characterized by significant emission reduction efforts, while RCP 8.5 depicts an extreme scenario with high emissions and minimal mitigation efforts, resulting in rapid warming and severe climate change impacts. The recently released Sixth Assessment Report has refined these scenarios by integrating socioeconomic factors, now referred to as SSP 1-1.9 (lowest emissions) and SSP 5-8.5 (highest emissions) [2]. According to these climate scenarios, it is predicted that, on average, there will be a critical temperature increase over the next 20 years, if necessary, precautions are not taken [1]. The International Energy Agency (IEA) reports that the building sector is a major contributor to global energy consumption, accounting for 40% of the total and 30% of greenhouse gas emissions [3]. Consequently, the anticipated climatic changes will undoubtedly impact on building air conditioning systems.

Figure 1. Energy and emission rates of the construction among sectors. [31]

2. Methods

This study investigates and analyzes the negative impact of climate change on HVAC systems, aiming to raise awareness of this critical issue. Climate change, a global problem of this age, will negatively affect every system to varying degrees if precautions are not taken. Initially, the study outlines the negative effects of climate change on HVAC systems, examining how future temperature changes and extreme weather events significantly impact building systems. This leads to an increased reliance on air conditioning to maintain thermal comfort. At this stage, the study identifies critical problems that may arise, including system overloads, increased energy consumption, and higher operational costs. Subsequently, the study evaluates potential solutions and presents alternatives to address these challenges, providing comparative examples to illustrate the effectiveness of different strategies. These alternatives include optimizing HVAC system design, enhancing energy efficiency, incorporating renewable energy sources, and implementing smart technologies for real-time monitoring and adaptive control. By highlighting both the challenges and potential strategies, this research aims to provide a comprehensive understanding of the issues. It emphasizes the necessity of proactive measures to mitigate the adverse effects of climate change on HVAC systems, encouraging stakeholders to adopt these strategies to ensure sustainable and efficient building operations.

3. Heating demand tendency

One of the most striking consequences of climate change is the steady increase in global temperatures. As temperatures rise, the demand for heating is expected to decrease significantly. This shift will directly impact the heat capacities and usage rates of HVAC systems in buildings, leading to reduced heating requirements and altered operational patterns for these systems. Numerous studies have been conducted to understand and quantify these effects.

To investigate the effects of climate change on the heating and cooling energy demand of buildings in Canada, future weather files were created using both statistical and dynamic downscaling methods. The results reveal that Heating Degree Days (HDD) are projected to decrease by 30% in Toronto by 2070. This significant reduction in HDD indicates milder winters, leading to a corresponding decrease in heating energy use intensity (EUI). Consequently, heating EUI is expected to decrease by 18-33%, depending on the building typology and the baseline climatic data used. This reduction in heating demand underscores the need to adapt building designs and HVAC systems to accommodate the changing climate, ensuring energy efficiency and resilience in future buildings [4]. Another study used scenario A2 to investigate the impact on heating and cooling energy demand in residential buildings in Brazil. The results showed a steady increase in energy consumption over 60 years. In contrast, energy consumption for heating to overcome the hours of cold illness will be significantly reduced in the cities of Curitiba and Florianópolis. It has also been proven that in cold cities, annual heating energy demand will decrease by 94% by 2080 due to rising average temperatures and increased global solar radiation [5]. The research conducted in China investigated the impact of future climate scenarios on energy consumption in office buildings. The findings indicated a reduction in heating consumption by 22.3% in Harbin, 26.6% in Beijing, 55.7% in Shanghai, 13.8% in Kunming, and 23.6% in Hong Kong. It was noted that space heating is predominantly provided by oil or gas-fired boiler plants, whereas space cooling primarily relies on electricity. This highlights a shift towards increased electrical energy demand. The study also emphasized that higher energy consumption in buildings will lead to increased emissions, thereby exacerbating climate change and global warming [6]. In another study, Greece was evaluated after evaluating climate model data, taking into account climate change predictions for the period 2010-2100. The results highlighted that energy demand for heating the building sector in Greece could be reduced by approximately 50%, with these effects being more pronounced in the southern part of the country [7]. Another study evaluated the energy demand of a typical detached house in Finland. According to the results obtained, it was stated that the annual energy demand for space heating and ventilation supply air will decrease by 20-40% by 2100 [8]. Other research focused on examining the impacts of climate change on residential buildings in Istanbul and Izmir, Turkey. Findings reveal a reduction in Heating Degree Days (HDD) alongside an escalation in Cooling Degree Days (CDD). Specifically, simulations under the RCP 8.5 scenario project a temperature rise of 4.3°C in Istanbul and 5°C in Izmir. Consequently, the study underscores a notable decrease in heating consumption, particularly pronounced in Izmir compared to Istanbul [9].

The findings of all these studies underscore the substantial influence of climate change on heating consumption patterns across diverse global regions, thereby directly affecting HVAC systems and building energy management strategies. With the global rise in temperatures, there is a marked decrease in heating demand observed in numerous geographical areas, resulting in reductions in HDD and consequential shifts in the operational dynamics of HVAC systems. Such transformations necessitate strategic adaptations in HVAC technologies and architectural practices aimed at optimizing energy efficiency and enhancing overall building resilience against evolving climatic conditions.

Moreover, the negative consequences of climate change are not limited to increasing temperatures. The IPCC's Fifth Assessment Report highlights an anticipated increase in the frequency and severity of extreme weather events. These changes directly impact HVAC systems, leading to operational disruptions and damage to air conditioning units. For instance, projections suggest that more robust HVAC systems will be necessary to manage heightened humidity and increased heat transfer from outdoor air during hotter summers, exacerbated by elevated outdoor wet and dry bulb temperatures [10]. These findings underscore the imperative for implementing additional measures to mitigate the vulnerability of HVAC systems to extreme weather events.

3.1 Urban Heat Island (UHI)

Temperature increases due to climate change are expected to be particularly pronounced in urban areas, largely due to the urban heat island effect. This effect occurs when the average air temperature in a city is higher than in surrounding rural areas. For people living in hot climates, this can result in temperatures that exceed the threshold for living comfort at certain times of the year. It is predicted that 75% of the world's population will be at risk of potentially lethal heat exposure in the form of heat waves, particularly in urban areas [11]. Consequently, the cooling needs of cities are expected to increase significantly to maintain thermal comfort. Current energy demand projections indicate a substantial short-term rise in the use of air conditioning (AC). A study conducted in central Paris found that, under future climate conditions, urban temperatures could be significantly higher than in rural areas due to the heat island effect. Another study predicts that AC energy consumption in France will double. [12]. In addition, air conditioners directly exacerbate the urban heat island effect. Liu et al. found that in a typical cluster of office buildings, AC systems can increase the heat island intensity by up to 0.7°C at midday, with an average daily increase of 0.53°C [13]. In summer, the temperature difference between urban centres and surrounding rural areas can reach 2.5°C, resulting in 5-10% additional electricity consumption and operational challenges for HVAC systems [14].

Research supports that the rising urban temperatures caused by climate change and the urban heat island effect will significantly increase the demand for air conditioning, leading to higher energy consumption and exacerbating climate change. This phenomenon underscores the need for different and more efficient air conditioning systems to ensure thermal comfort. The increased use of air conditioning will not only escalate energy consumption but also contribute to greater environmental pollution. If precautions are not taken, the negative effects of climate change will worsen. To mitigate these impacts, it is crucial to adopt sustainable HVAC practices, enhance energy efficiency, and implement innovative cooling technologies. This includes the integration of passive cooling strategies, the development of smart grid technologies, and the utilization of renewable energy sources for cooling purposes.

4. Cooling demand tendency

As an inevitable consequence of climate change, the increase in air temperatures will result in a decrease in the demand for heating and an increase in the demand for cooling. In this regard, the report from the International Energy Agency (IEA) has demonstrated that from 2016 to 2050, cooling degree days (CDDs) will increase by an average of 25.4% worldwide [11].

According to the research conducted by Climate Central to observe the impact of climate change, 242 different cities across the USA were analyzed and CDDs showed a critical increase in 96% of the cities examined from the 1970s to the present [15]. In another study conducted on commercial buildings in Australia, it was observed that cooling energy will increase between 28% and 59% by 2070 [16]. In another study on this subject, residential and commercial buildings in Switzerland were taken as basis. According to the results obtained, it is stated that cooling energy will increase at a critical rate from 223% to 1050% by 2100 [17]. In the study carried out in Greece, it was observed that the cooling demand in residences will increase significantly by 248% by 2100 [7]. The results obtained in the research conducted in China indicate that there will be an increase in cooling demands. These increases were calculated as approximately 20.4% in Beijing, 11.4% in Shanghai, 14.1% in Hong Kong and 24.2% in Kunming [6]. The study carried out in Canada stated that the energy demand for cooling will increase by 15-126%, using future climate data scenario [4]. A study conducted in Belgium focused on the potential change in energy demands. According to the results, the cooling energy demand in the building stock is expected to increase by 39% to 65% in the 2050s and 61% to 123% in the 2090s compared to the 2010s [18]. According to research conducted on residential buildings and cities with different climatic characteristics in New Zealand, by 2090, cooling loads are projected to increase by 40-79%. Among the cities studied (Auckland, Hamilton, Wellington, Rotorua, Christchurch, and Queenstown), Wellington is expected to experience the most significant increase, with a 79% rise in cooling load [19]. A further study revealed a substantial rise in the demand for cooling energy, reaching up to 255.1%, and a notable increase in the likelihood of overheating, up to 155%, in typical residential buildings in Milan, the most populous city in the Italian climate zone [20]. In research conducted on residential buildings in four different cities in Japan, it was found that the annual cooling load is expected to increase by approximately 12% in Tokyo, 9% in Toyohashi, 8% in Osaka, and 7% in Nagoya [21]. In a study conducted on a typical single-family house in Istanbul, it was stated that according to the A2 climate scenario, cooling energy consumption approximately doubled between 2020 and 2080, reaching 106.95 kWh/m² from 53.14 kWh/m² measured in 2020 [22]. In a study conducted on a multi-storey residential building in Sweden, it was stated that the annual cooling demand increased by 31% to 63% for RCP4.5 and 45% to 73% for RCP8.5. It is emphasized that at the end of the century, significantly more pronounced changes in the annual heating and cooling demands of buildings are observed for the RCP8.5 scenario [23]. In a study conducted on residential buildings in Taiwan, annual cooling energy usage was simulated for the 2020s, 2050s, and 2080s. The results indicated increases of 31%, 59%, and 82% in cooling energy across these three time periods, respectively. However, it was emphasized that these rates could be reduced by combining several passive strategies [24]. In a study conducted in Al-Ain, United Arab Emirates, which has a hot climate, it was concluded that a scenario of the city warming by 5.9°C would likely increase the energy used for cooling buildings by approximately 23.5% [25].

Research consistently demonstrates that climate change will lead to a substantial rise in global cooling demand, albeit with varying impacts across regions. The vulnerability of HVAC systems to these changes remains a persistent concern. As global temperatures increase and extreme heat events become more frequent, HVAC systems encounter challenges such as heightened workload, diminished efficiency, and escalated operational costs. The burgeoning demand for cooling not only strains energy reservoirs but also amplifies environmental repercussions, including heightened carbon emissions and exacerbated urban heat island effects. Addressing these challenges necessitates proactive adaptation strategies, encompassing the adoption of energy-efficient technologies, enhancement of building insulation and design, and implementation of urban planning initiatives aimed at mitigating heat island effects.

4.1 Climate Change Influences on Air Conditioning Energy Requirements and Usage Trends and Greenhouse Gases Emissions

The escalating demand for cooling due to climate change necessitates a deeper exploration of its environmental repercussions. Air conditioning, pivotal in maintaining indoor comfort, operates on a scale that significantly impacts global warming. The refrigerants used in these systems, such as hydrofluorocarbons (HFCs), possess a far greater capacity to trap heat in the atmosphere compared to CO₂, amplifying the greenhouse effect. Additionally, the electricity required to power air conditioners is predominantly generated from fossil fuels, which not only increases carbon emissions but also contributes to air pollution and other environmental concerns. This dual impact underscores the urgent need for sustainable practices in cooling technologies, including the adoption of energy-efficient systems, advancements in refrigerant management to mitigate greenhouse gas emissions, and the promotion of renewable energy sources. Addressing these challenges is essential not only for reducing the environmental footprint of cooling systems but also for mitigating their contribution to global climate change.

Air conditioners and electric fans currently consume around 20% of the total power used in buildings worldwide. Energy consumption for space cooling has been steadily increasing over the years, and the International Energy Agency (IEA) predicts that the need for space cooling energy will quadruple by 2050 [11]. By mid-century, space cooling is projected to account for 30% to 50% of peak electrical load in many countries, potentially leading to significant grid failures [11]. Globally, the annual power consumption for air conditioning is approximately 1 trillion kilowatt-hours (kWh), which exceeds twice the total energy usage of the entire African continent [26]. It is also estimated that in the near future, the energy required for cooling will surpass that for heating by more than tenfold [26].

These trends highlight the critical need for sustainable cooling solutions. The growing reliance on air conditioning not only places immense strain on energy resources but also exacerbates environmental impacts, including higher carbon emissions and intensified urban heat island effects. Proactive adaptation strategies are necessary to address these challenges. These strategies should include the adoption of energy-efficient technologies, improvements in building insulation and design, and urban planning measures that mitigate heat island effects. Such measures are crucial not only for maintaining comfort and productivity in buildings but also for reducing the overall environmental footprint associated with increased cooling demands in a warming climate.

5. Preventative approach & possible solutions

Since the energy demand in buildings is directly influenced by fluctuations in external climatic conditions, extensive mitigation and adaptation efforts are being developed to address the profound and significant impacts of climate change. The degree to which these effects are felt varies according to building types and climate zones. One of the primary areas of focus is the implementation of passive strategies. Invidiata and Ghisi found that cooling demands in residential buildings in Brazil could be reduced by 50% using passive strategies such as thermal insulation and sunshades [5]. Similarly, studies on residential buildings in the United Arab Emirates suggest that thermal insulation and thermal mass strategies can significantly reduce cooling needs. In Hong Kong, effective passive strategies have led to a reduction in cooling load by 56.7-64.5% [27]. These strategies are essential for decreasing energy consumption and enhancing building efficiency. Passive measures, such as improved insulation, optimized shading, natural ventilation, and reflective roofing materials, play a crucial role in reducing the reliance on mechanical cooling systems.

Beyond passive strategies, enhancing the efficiency of existing technologies and developing new, environmentally friendly devices are also vital. According to the IEA, cooling demands can be halved if air conditioning units are upgraded to high-performance models [11]. Renewable cooling technologies, particularly those utilizing solar thermal and solar PV, are promising solutions for regions with rapidly increasing cooling demands. District cooling systems can provide cost-effective electrical grid flexibility in densely populated, hot areas [11]. Integrating building systems to store and utilize solar energy can significantly reduce overall energy consumption. In Italy, combining air handling units (AHU) with condensing gas boilers has shown substantial energy benefits, particularly in temperate climates. The integration of a biomass heat generator with an efficient condensing gas boiler has led to energy savings of up to 30%. However, using an Air-to-Water Heat Pump system instead of biomass has resulted in increased energy consumption, highlighting the importance of selecting the appropriate technology for specific climate conditions [28]. In the UK, studies have identified ground-connected heat pump (CHP) systems as the most suitable primary air-conditioning solution. These systems offer high efficiency and can significantly reduce energy consumption and emissions compared to traditional systems [29]. Additionally, integrating renewable energy sources into building designs, such as solar and geothermal energy, can provide sustainable cooling solutions.

The combination of these strategies—passive measures, efficient technologies, and renewable energy integration—can create resilient and sustainable building systems. Addressing the increasing cooling demands necessitates a holistic approach that considers both technological advancements and environmentally conscious design principles. These measures are crucial not only for maintaining comfort and productivity in buildings but also for reducing the overall environmental footprint associated with increased cooling demands in a warming climate. However, climate change affects each region to different degrees, so climate vulnerability by region and in-depth analysis are required before developing climate adaptation strategies [30].

6. Result

This study highlights the profound impact of climate change on HVAC systems and building energy performance. With global temperatures rising and extreme weather events becoming more frequent, the demand for space cooling is set to increase significantly across various climatic regions. This trend not only strains energy resources but also exacerbates environmental challenges, including heightened carbon emissions and urban heat island effects.To mitigate these impacts effectively, proactive measures are essential. Passive strategies such as thermal insulation, sunshades, natural ventilation, and reflective roofing materials have shown substantial potential in reducing cooling demands.Additionally, enhancing HVAC technology efficiency and integrating renewable energy sources emerge as critical solutions. Upgrading air conditioning units to high-performance models, utilizing solar thermal and photovoltaic systems for cooling, and implementing district cooling networks offer promising avenues to reduce energy consumption and enhance system resilience.The integration of these strategies—passive measures, efficient technologies, and renewable energy—presents a holistic approach to building resilience against climate change impacts. By adopting these measures, stakeholders can mitigate energy demand, promote environmental stewardship, and enhance occupant comfort and well-being in the face of a changing climate. In conclusion, addressing the challenges posed by climate change requires collaboration among policymakers, designers, engineers, and building operators. Prioritizing climate-resilient HVAC systems and adopting adaptive strategies will contribute to a sustainable built environment capable of navigating the complexities of a warming world effectively.

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